SterlingTerrell.net: Cotton Price Model

Cotton Price Model


For access to the current Cotton Price Model, a monthly consult is required.

For flavor, most of 2015 prices are listed below.

A regression model, like the one located here can give insight into how prices, on average, would react given a change in one or more fundamental supply or demand factors.  A proper interpretation of this price model would be:

"Over the last number of years, if cotton supply and demand were at their current levels, we would - on average -  expect the US price of cotton to be approximately:  ____ cents."

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.985897697
R Square 0.971994269
Adjusted R Square 0.933742836
Standard Error 12.96136825
Observations 41

As a side note, this model does not attempt to forecast the future direction or level of cotton prices. I believe most people's pockets are not as deep as the market's when it come to questions about what the market "should" be doing.

Find the monthly cotton newsletter, The Cotton Club, by clicking the link, here.

December 2015 CPM:  55.4 cents, U.S.
November 2015 CPM:  56.3 cents, U.S.
October 2015 CPM:  58.3 cents, U.S.
September 2015 CPM:  60.1 cents, U.S.
August 2015 CPM:  62.2 cents, U.S. (Model Change)
August 2015 CPM:  60.6 cents, U.S.
July 2015 CPM:  55.6 cents, U.S.
June 2015 CPM:  62.6 cents, U.S.
May 2015 CPM:  55.4 cents, U.S.
April 2015 CPM:  59.4 cents, U.S.
March 2015 CPM:  60.3 cents, U.S.
February 2015 CPM:  60.8 cents, U.S.

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