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The Cotton Club Letter - June 2017 | SterlingTerrell.net

The Cotton Club Letter - June 2017



  Price Picture
Chart Source: Barchart.com


Trend Picture
Chart Source: Barchart.com


Notes
Managed money is net long.
Possible support around 73.00.
Possible resistance around 75.00.
The trend is up.

Price

Cotlook 'A' Index is at: 83.80

Cash Sales

Recently, on 769 bales traded, the trading platform TheSeam.com reported an average cash price of approximately: 67.68.

Cash prices are averaging approximately 14.18 cents over loan value.

Stocks and Sales
ICE Certified Cotton Stocks = 313
,026
US Net Upland Export Sales (2016/2017) = 261,300
     Vietnam was the big buyer at 74,300. 

Current World Balance Sheet (2017/2018)
Beginning Stocks: 89.34 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 114.73
Mill Use: 116.51
Ending Stocks: 87.71


Current China Balance Sheet (2016/2017)
Beginning Stocks: 48.40 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 24.00
Mill Use: 38.00
Ending Stocks: 39.35

Current India Balance Sheet (2016/2017)

Beginning Stocks: 11.99 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 28.00
Mill Use: 24.20
Ending Stocks: 13.34

Current USA Balance Sheet (2016/2017)
Beginning Stocks: 3.2 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 19.20

Mill Use: 3.40
Ending Stocks: 5.50

Producer / Merchant
    Long:  24,101  (Contracts)
    Short: 124,754
Swap Dealers
    Long:  69,779
    Short:  5,460
Managed Money
    Long:  59,849
    Short:  26,025
Other Reportables
    Long:  17,352
    Short:  13,635

Cotton Club Letter Price Model:  Current Price Is Available By Subscription Only
regression model
, like the one located here can give insight into how prices, on average, would react given a change in one or more fundamental supply or demand factors. A proper interpretation of this price model would be: 


"Over the last number of years, if cotton supply and demand were at their current levels, we would - on average - expect the US price of cotton to be approximately:  X cents."


*Note - This model does not attempt to forecast the future direction or level of cotton prices. 

General View
Bullish.
Keep in mind that while this is a monthlyletter, I can easily change my mind in 24 hours.


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